Severe Setback for China’s Commercial Vehicle Markets in Q1, Some Segments to Improve in Q2

According to the recent release of ACT Research’s China Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, China’s heavy and medium commercial vehicle markets suffered a severe setback in Q1’20 due to the COVID-19 virus. The truck portion of China’s commercial vehicle market has already shown a significant recovery in the first two months of 2020’s second quarter.

The consumer-facing segments of China’s economy are likely to give less support to the heavy and medium truck markets, particularly with GDP growth muted as a result of COVID-19. Ongoing structural changes, such as stricter weight-limit enforcement, modal shifts, and the removal of NSIII vehicles, within China’s CV markets are helping to offset COVID-impacted consumption. Demand for bulk goods in construction markets is expected to recover in the next six months, as infrastructure investment once again becomes the main driver of growth in China’s economy.

In the meantime, freight-hauling overcapacity will continue to be a drag on freight rates and new vehicle sales until supply and demand become more closely aligned.
The China CV OUTLOOK, jointly published quarterly by ACT and China’s State Information Center (SIC), includes a review and forecast of China’s heavy tractor and heavy and medium duty truck and bus markets, as well as analysis of OEM market shares within China and an overview of the Chinese macroeconomy. This quarterly report also includes access to monthly wholesale data, alternative fuels by CV application, market share percentage, industrial policy impacts, and competitive landscape.

SIC is affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission of China and is engaged in research on the macro-economy, key industries and information technology.

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

ACT’s 63rd seminar is scheduled for Aug. 11-13, 2020, and is being offered via livestream for those wishing to participate. Focused on the road to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the event will feature dealer, alternative power, and economic panels, as well as discussions on near-term demand of North American commercial vehicle markets and the pending impact of alternative power on the market in the near future.