Federal Reserve Gauges Underlying Inflation

  • The UIG “full data set” measure remains virtually unchanged from the previous month, at a currently estimated 2.6% in July.
  • The “prices-only” measure remains virtually unchanged from the previous month, at a currently estimated 1.9% in July.
  • The twelve-month change in the June CPI was +1.8%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from June.
The UIG measures continue to estimate trend CPI inflation to be approximately in the 1.9% to 2.6% range.
Data Series The “prices-only” underlying inflation gauge (UIG) is derived from a large number of disaggregated price series in the consumer price index (CPI), while the “full data set” measure incorporates additional macroeconomic and financial variables. For a list of the series employed, see the data appendix.