Following on the heels of rising economic expectations, ACT’s forecasts for Classes 5-7, Class 8, and trailer output in 2023 and 2024 move higher again this month, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK. Expectations for economic growth in 2023 have improved, boosting economic support for a shallower Class 8 demand trough in 2024, teeing the industry up for even stronger demand into 2025.
“With the economy gathering momentum into the second half of 2023, and with supporting backlogs in place, the risk to build rates into year end is now essentially in the rearview,” according to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “While the 2024 forecasts have risen, they continue to anticipate slowing into next year, as pent-up demand for the Class 8 and trailer markets will be largely consumed by the end of this year amid strong fleet growth in the weak 2023 freight demand environment.”
Vieth concluded, “An improving economic outlook is not a panacea to cure the freight industry’s sloshy capacity situation. A less-bad freight market in 2023 and rising 2024 economic expectations are at least helping to boost one side of the supply-demand imbalance with which truck and trailer buyers are currently wrestling. Adding even more new trucks into an already overcapacitized market risks keeping capacity looser for longer.”
The N.A. CV OUTLOOK reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years. The report’s objective is to give OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other interested market participants the information they need to make informed decisions in what is traditionally a deeply cyclical market. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, touching on relevant demand drivers starting with forward-looking activity metrics, orders and backlogs. Information included in this report covers build and retail sales forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, North American macroeconomics by country, freight and carrier market performance, used equipment valuation trends, and regulatory environment analysis and impacts.
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.