ACT Research: Commercial Vehicle Market Forecasts Upgraded in October

According to ACT’s latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, after pulling the cycle forward last month, ACT’s front of the cycle forecasts were marked up across-the-board again in October.

Additionally, ACT Research recently announced plans for a new multi-client study focusing on electrification of the commercial vehicle industry to be released in 2021. The scope of the study will include unit sales for the US and Canada, annually from 2020 to 2030, with single-year outlooks for 2035 and 2040. Class 8 truck and Classes 4-7 truck and bus segments will be considered, with additional segmentation encompassing step vans, conventional and low cab forward trucks, RV, school bus, yard spotter, transit bus categories, as well as the Class 8 straight, day cab, and sleeper subcategories. Our research will compare purchase and operational costs for diesel, battery, fuel cell, and hybrid powertrains in a rigorous comparative total cost of ownership (TCO) framework. It will also take into account concerns, such as infrastructure requirements and costs, regulation, and issues including maintenance, range, durability and vehicle and component replacement. For more details about how to participate in this study, including a full prospectus, contact Ian McGriff at imcgriff@actresearch.net or click here to let us know of your interest.

The N.A. CV OUTLOOK is a robust report that forecasts the future of the industry, looking at the next 1-5 years, with the objective of giving OEMs, Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, and investment firms the information needed to plan accordingly for what is to come. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, as well as takes a deep dive into relevant, current market activity to highlight orders, production, and backlogs, shedding light on the forecast. Information included in this report covers forecasts and current market conditions for medium and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, the macroeconomies of the US, Canada, and Mexico, publicly-traded carrier information, oil and fuel price impacts, freight and intermodal considerations, and regulatory environment impacts.

According to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst, said, “Central to our growing bullishness on current activity translating into the next up-cycle are the non-traditional drivers of current freight market strength, even as more traditional drivers remain in the wings.” He added, “We’re seeing a COVID-driven consumer and business substitution of spending from services to goods, and while a vacation or business trip doesn’t fit into a truck, lumber and technology do.”

Vieth continued, “Low interest rates, millennial demographics, and urban escapes have supercharged residential investment, and we’re also seeing the need for a period of business inventory restocking that should benefit truck freight into mid-2021.” He explained further, “By Q1’21, the current manufacturing cycle will hit a nine-quarter downturn, suggesting a tightly coiled spring of pent-up demand, also good for freight and ultimately commercial vehicle demand.” Vieth concluded, “That said, our thesis does rest on three impactful caveats: a successful COVID vaccination program in place by around the second quarter of next year, Congress passing significant legislation to support left-behind economic sectors, and the potential for a flood of drivers into a market that still has considerable parked equipment, thereby blowing-up the favorable rate environment that fleets are enjoying currently.”

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

ACT’s 64th Seminar is scheduled for February 23-25, 2021. Focused on the continuous evolution and advancement of power and energy changes in the transportation and commercial vehicle markets, OUTLOOK Seminar 64 will feature key industry leaders such as Ryan Reed of Wabash National, John Bennett from Meritor, Lance Riegel of Marvin Johnson, and Dominick Beckman from Hino Motors. Look for more details on this event over the coming months and save the date for February’s event.

Click here for seminar information.